Two weeks ago, we did an article on “What is the future of aviation?” on that article, we were asked whether we’d do an article focusing on the future of business aviation. So what is the future of business aviation?
The future of business aviation can be separated down into categories:
- Speed
- Efficiency
- Luxury
- Price
- Consolidation
What is the future of business aviation in terms of speed?
We have regularly covered the potential for the speed of business aircraft to increase in the coming decade. The Aerion AS2 is set to be the main supersonic business jet in the coming decade. The AS2 is set to be the fastest business jet ever created, even faster than recently released business jets like the G700 and Global 8000.
Whilst the AS2 may be the only supersonic business aircraft currently in development/production, it won’t be for long. Once the AS2 is given a type certificate, and the first AS2’s are delivered, the larger manufacturers will open their eyes to the possibility of supersonic business aviation.
When the manufacturers do so, they’ll begin development of their own supersonic business aircraft. Aircraft such as the G800 could be re-purposed into supersonic business aircraft.
This will make current sub-sonic business jets irrelevant in terms of practicality for large corporations to use. These corporations will likely sell off their sub-sonic business jets, in order to purchase supersonic business aircraft.
What is the future business aviation in terms of efficiency?
Business aviation isn’t cheap. Everyone knows that. Otherwise everyone would have their own private jet. Last year, Barron’s reported that more and more businesses are demanding cleaner and more eco-friendly business jets.
We could start to see our current business jets fueled by biofuels. Which would help to reduce the amount of waste sent to landfill.
We could also start to see short and intermediate aircraft, powered not by kerosene, but electricity. Just like how Tesla is making electric cars, there are plenty of firms making electric aircraft.
We could soon start to see flights like Manchester to Paris, or Gatwick to Barcelona, flown not by 737s, but by smaller electric aircraft.
Whilst these aircraft would initially take longer, they’d be far more efficient than our current aircraft in terms of price.
We may even see airlines like Ryanair invest in some of these electric aircraft.
What is the future of business aviation in terms of luxury?
This one is fairly obvious. Luxury in business aircraft will increase. As newer and newer business aircraft are released, aircraft manufacturers will have to go more in depth, and provide more luxuries in order to attract sales.
What could we see added?
- Beds on smaller aircraft, we are seeing smaller and smaller aircraft, able to fly further and further. So, seeing beds on aircraft that do not currently have the capacity to have them today, would be a likely outcome. This would obviously attract customers as now they no longer have to shed out $60 million for an aircraft with a bed. Instead, in the future of business aviation, I could see an aircraft costing $35-$40 million having a bed.
- More seats, this is a favorite of most aircraft manufacturers. More seats attracts business (and businesses), as no more executives or managerial-tier employees can be fitted onto one aircraft. This lessens the burden for the business, as now the cost of the flight is less per person than it would’ve been before
- Larger cabins, this is a favorite as well, especially with Gulfstream. Larger cabins allow for more room, both for more seats, and for more compartments. When Gulfstream do it, they lengthen the cabin, which allows for more space in the aircraft. However, with the newest G700, they have also altered the cabin dimensions to be wider, as well as longer, when compared to the G650ER.
- More/better in flight entertainment, this is favored quite a lot by businessmen with young families. The businessmen can allow for two of their children to be watching two different movies, in two different parts of the aircraft. All this can happen, whilst he works on new solutions for his business, or catches some rest.
What is the future of aviation in terms of price?
In the future of business aviation, I can see business aircraft being more expensive. This is because they are as much a business tool as an office building is. If a business is in the market for a brand-new business jet, they’re likely willing to pay whatever it costs, in order to get it. Manufacturers know this now, so that’s why were are seeing new aircraft like the AS2 costing $120 million!
Manufacturers understand the old adage of “Time is Money.” So they are capitalizing on this, by raising the price- after all, their clientele aren’t your everyday folks. They’re millionaires and billionaires.
Not only will inflation cause the price of the materials (and thus the aircraft) to go up in price, but also the luxuries. To attract new customers, manufacturers will add more luxuries to be more appealing.
These luxuries, of course, will not be free, nor will they be cheap. This is why the future of business aviation, will see an increase in the price of aircraft.
The larger and more luxurious the aircraft, the more expensive the aircraft will be (naturally).
Why do I think the future of business aviation will see an increase in consolidation?
Business aviation is already quite a consolidated industry. The main players include: Embraer, Bombardier and Gulfstream, but also traditional aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus.
This is something that I can see becoming even smaller in the future. Recently, Airbus acquired a majority share in Bombardier, and Boeing acquired a large stake in Embraer.
Boeing currently backs many smaller startups, including Aerion. I could quite easily see Boeing acquiring Aerion once the AS2 comes out, providing it is a success of course.
Airbus are also backing smaller startups like Lilium. I could quite easily see Airbus acquiring them once they have become moderately successful.
And even if that is not the case, I believe that Gulfstream, Airbus and Boeing will continue to see more market share of the industry at the behest of Embraer, Bombardier, Hawker Beechcraft etc.
Made Illegal?
Normally, when you read through articles talking about the future of business aviation, or even general aviation, you see a big red illegal stamp over an aircraft.
Many environmentalist groups believe that there should either be heavy taxes on aviation, or even to make it illegal all together!
However, I doubt that will come to fruition. As I said, a business jet is like an office, it would paralyze a large business if they were taken away.
So I highly doubt that economists, senators, lobbyists or even the wider public would allow that for the fear of the repercussions that may follow as a result.
I hope you enjoyed this article on the future of business aviation. What do you think will happen in the future of business aviation? Do you think it will be taxed/ made illegal for environmental concerns? Tell me in the comments below!