What is the future of aviation? Aviation in 10 years…

We have had aviation for over 100, since the Wright Brothers first flew in 1903, but what about the future of aviation? What can we expect of aviation in the next 10 years or so? 

The future of aviation can really be broken down into 5 key points: 

• Environmental 
• Speed
• Efficiency 
• Size
• The death of the Hub and Spoke theory 

What is the future of aviation environmentally?

Aviation has grown exponentially in the last 10 years, but the next 10 years will be the most significant for the industry. 

Aviation is currently the main focus of environmental activist groups. They believe that not enough is being done to curb the amount of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere by our aircraft. This is something that they believe has to change now. 

They propose that regional flights should be used not by gas-guzzling jet/turboprop aircraft, but by electric aircraft. 

Companies such as MagniX, Zunum Aero and Pipistrel are all in the process of building their own electric aircraft. 

Although, these aircraft may only be small two seater aircraft, the technology is there. Activists believe that regional electric aircraft are just around the corner, and within the next ten years, aircraft like the Bombardier CSeries will be no more. 

In the future, we could see that the Bombardier CSeries and Dash 9’s are replaced by Zunum ZA10’s. Although the ZA10’s are currently still in the prototype phase, we could soon see the ZA10 be given a type certificate and delivered to paying customers. 

The ZA10 would seat around 50 passengers and would have an optional pilot cockpit!

What is the future of aviation in terms of speed?

We have already covered the descendants of Concorde- the Aerion AS2 and the Boom Overture. 

These are two aircraft that could see us be able to fly at over the speed of sound again. 

Even if these supersonic aircraft aren’t viable in the next 10 years, we will still see an increase in speed from sub-sonic jets. 

The newest aircraft from both Boeing and Airbus have shown us that speed is a key factor in getting airlines on board. Airlines now want the best of both worlds- aircraft that are as efficient as possible, but also not compromise on speed. 

The old A321 has a speed of 828 km/h (0.67 Mach) compared to the new A321xlr which has a speed of 926 km/h (0.75 Mach). Even Boeing has done the same with its 737 family of jets in regards to speed. The 737-800 has a speed of 969 km/h (0.785 Mach), compared to the infamous 737 MAX which has a speed of 975 km/h (0.79 Mach). 

Whilst these may only be slight improvements (especially on Boeing’s end), this is significant. This shows that airlines want airliners with more efficient engines, but still faster speeds. 

What is the future of aviation in terms of efficiency?

Efficiency is much like speed in the aviation industry- when Concorde flew, it was all about speed. When the aviation industry got the bill for the Concorde’s fuel, the industry changed its stance to efficiency over speed. 

By efficient, airlines wanted airliners that went further than they’d ever gone before, using far less fuel. 

Airliners fly far higher than they did 30 years ago, this allows them to get to the most out of their fuel. Airliners also tend to carry less fuel for their size than they did 30 years ago too!

This is because the engine manufacturers have been working to make the engines take in more air, and less fuel. They have done this by adding more blades to the engines, and speeding up the reaction process, rather than slowing it down. 

From this, they are able to cut the amount of necessary fuel by around 30%! 

This makes these airliners more attractive to airlines- you can now cram in more people, charge them more, and fuel costs are down. This makes it so there is more profit for the airlines, and the cost of the airliner itself is offset far quicker. 

We will likely see more efficient versions of today’s efficient aircraft, not to mention likely new aircraft that are also efficient. We will likely see more efficient variants of the B787 and A320 family, alongside new aircraft such as the B797. 

What is the future of aviation in terms of size?

Size, speed and efficiency are all interlinked in the aviation industry. 

Airlines are looking for larger aircraft to hold more people, these aircraft to be faster than their predecessors, and burn less fuel. 

But it’s not the size or airliners that will increase the most in the future if aviation, but the size of the customer base. 

Aviation a far cry today from what it was 50 years ago. Every year, more and more people get to go flying for the first time, and this is unlikely to change in the next 10 years. 

This is a growing phenomenon thanks to low cost and budget airlines such as EasyJet, Ryanair and Southwest Airlines. 

These airlines remove all of the perks of flying such as free in-flight meals, free drinks and free entertainment. Those who fly on these low cost airlines will either have to do without the perks or will have to pay for them during the flight. 

I can see this becoming a main-stay of the future of aviation simply due to the prices these carriers charge, sometimes up to half savings!

Why will the Hub and Spoke Theory be made irrelevant in terms of the future of aviation?

The Hub and Spoke Theory is defined as the following:

The spoke–hub distribution paradigm is a form of transport topology optimization in which traffic planners organize routes as a series of “spokes” that connect outlying points to a central “hub“. … “Hubbing” involves “the arrangement of a transportation network as a hub-and-spoke model”.

(Source Wikipedia)

This theory has been the main theory in air travel for the past 75 years. It’s what made the 747 so successful, and the A380 such a failure. 

In the 1950’s/60’s, if you wanted to get around the world or to other parts of the United States, you had to go from your local airport (spoke) to a hub airport. From that hub airport, you would travel to your destination, whether it be the other side of the US or the other side of the world. 

Now, this model has been over taken by the Spoke to Spoke Theory, where you go from any airport to any other airport. 

Take this as an example, let’s say I live in Leeds (UK), and I want to get to Barcelona for a weekend trip with my fiancée. 

In the Hub and Spoke Theory, I would go from Leeds Bradford Airport, to Manchester Airport, and then to Barcelona International Airport. 

In the Spoke to Spoke Theory, I would go straight from Leeds Bradford airport to either Barcelona International airport or to a smaller airport such as Reus. 

The former is still used by large airlines such as BA or Delta, in order to get passengers onto their larger 747 and A380 aircraft. Although, they are now moving away from the former thanks to new long haul airliners such as the A350 and 787. 

The latter is used by smaller airlines, especially regional and low cost budget airlines. And as low cost and budget airlines become more favorable, the larger airlines will likely follow suit with it as well. 

I can see the future of aviation being rather similar, yet vastly different from we currently see. Whilst holidaymakers will continue to choose low cost and budget over the traditional airlines, businesses will still choose traditional airlines. It wouldn’t surprise me, if the future of aviation for large airlines was fully business class. Or even if it is half business and half first class! 

I hope you enjoyed this article on the future of aviation and how it will be in 10 years. Do you agree with my predictions as to the future of aviation? Do you think I left anything out in regards to the future of aviation? What do you think will happen in regards to the future of aviation? Tell me in the comments!